RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/05/2026
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon
across the eastern Carolinas.
...20z Update...
Latest radar and lightning data shows a band of pre-frontal
convection moving across the Carolinas and far southeast VA. This
activity will continue to pose an isolated wind damage threat for
the next few hours before moving offshore by early evening. 5% wind
probabilities have been adjusted accordingly, and the 10% general
thunder probability highlights regions with remaining MUCAPE ahead
of the approaching cold front. See the previous discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 04/05/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026/
...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
Within the base of a broad upper trough centered over eastern Canada
and the Great Lakes, multiple subtle mid-level perturbations over
the Midwest will develop east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas today. Ongoing showers will accompany an
east/southeastward-moving surface cold front, but some cloud breaks
will allow for filtered pre-frontal heating, particularly across the
coastal plain over the eastern Carolinas and far southeast VA.
Up to 100-300 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible over the eastern
Carolinas where greater heating should occur. A broken line of
low-topped thunderstorms will develop along/ahead of the cold front
this afternoon as it moves east-southeastward. Modestly curved
low-level hodographs and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support
clusters/bands of convection, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible where low-level lapse rates can become steepened. However,
poor mid-level lapse rates and generally weak instability are
expected to limit updraft strength and the overall severe threat.
...Upper Midwest...
While low-level moisture will remain quite meager, cold temperatures
aloft and very weak MUCAPE may support a few lightning flashes late
this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast MN into
northeast IA and southwest WI near a southeastward-moving front.
Gusty winds may occur with this convection in the presence of a
well-mixed boundary layer and strengthening northwesterly winds
aloft. But with minimal instability forecast, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain low.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of
Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday.
Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the
Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest late in the period.
At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL
into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and
a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside
from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold
front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical
shear will preclude severe potential.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel
moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough
overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop
across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening.
Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening
midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an
upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these
areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2026
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies/Four
Corners area. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.
...Synopsis...
Several upper shortwave troughs will move across the U.S. on
Tuesday. A pair of troughs will migrate across the eastern U.S. and
Florida. Meanwhile a weak shortwave trough will move across the
southern Rockies and Plains while another moves over the northern
Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will encompass much of the
eastern half of the CONUS while a cold front sags south across
central/southern FL. Isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the
cold front across the FL Peninsula. A dry/stable airmass across much
of the rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity, though
a few storms are possible as the shortwave upper trough moves across
the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Severe storms are
not expected.
..Leitman.. 04/05/2026
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