RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms remain possible from the middle and upper
Texas Coast toward the Sabine Valley late today and overnight. A few
storms could produce at least small hail.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
High pressure will remain situated over much of the central and
eastern states, beneath moderate westerly flow aloft. Within the
southern stream, a shortwave trough will move into the southern
Plains late, with cooling aloft spreading into TX and toward the
Sabine Valley into Sunday morning.
While the surface air mass will remain cool and stable, elevated
instability will develop ahead of this feature, aided by southerly
850 mb winds over 30 kt. Precipitation including thunderstorms
should develop over eastern TX during the afternoon and evening, and
spread eastward across LA overnight.
MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg will develop over eastern TX from
evening into the overnight, with increasing deep-layer shear through
the cloud-bearing layer. Model forecast soundings vary with degree
of instability, lapse rate and shear combinations, but cool
sub-cloud layers will favor minimal melting of any hail that does
develop. At this time it appears most hail will be below severe
limits, with sporadic strong cores within the larger precipitation
shield.
..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/22/2025
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SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast across portions of southern Louisiana and
immediate surrounding areas on Sunday. No severe weather is
expected.
...Discussion...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing across the Gulf at the
beginning of the period with some lightning activity possible across
much of southern Louisiana and perhaps parts of Southeast Texas. The
greater instability, and thus the best chance for marginal severe
hail, will remain well offshore in the central Gulf. By Sunday
evening, the surface low and associated surface front will move far
enough southeast into the central Gulf to bring an end to
thunderstorm activity by mid to late evening. These thunderstorms
may approach the Florida coast by late in the period, but are
expected to arrive after 12Z.
..Bentley.. 02/22/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday. No
severe thunderstorms are expected.
...Discussion...
A positively-tilted, mid-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will traverse the Gulf and cross the Florida Peninsula
on Monday. Some weak instability will be present which may be
sufficient for a few thunderstorms, particularly across the Keys and
into far South Florida. While effective shear will be sufficient for
organized convection (40-45 knots), weak lapse rates and relatively
weak instability will likely inhibit the overall threat. Therefore,
while thunderstorms are possible, severe weather remains unlikely.
A strong mid-level jet and associated trough will move into the
Northwest on Monday. As temperatures cool aloft, sufficient
instability should develop for isolated lightning, particularly
closer to the coast.
..Bentley.. 02/22/2025
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