RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the
ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes
to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level
warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop
a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal
deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms
gradually expand north and eastward into tonight.
Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have
materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm
into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor
low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher
theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near
or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any
stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation
due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the
confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall
modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and
the severe potential inland.
..Lyons.. 12/04/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/
...Synopsis...
Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into
the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a
very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone
of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have
some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This
should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana.
...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana...
Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the
vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints
here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a
few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the
evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to
the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse
rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak
large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to
maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather
continues to appear low today.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central Texas.
...Synopsis...
The upper low/trough over the Southwest and northwest Mexico will
minutely shift east on Friday. As this occurs, modestly enhanced
mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains.
Boundary layer moisture will remain scant across TX due to prior
cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. However, a few
elevated thunderstorms will be possible across central TX.
Increasing midlevel moisture coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates
and cool temperatures aloft will support meager elevated
instability. Subtle large-scale ascent associated with the eastward
creeping upper trough may be sufficient to aid in isolated lightning
flashes. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
..Leitman.. 12/04/2024
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