RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
CORRECTED FOR AREA
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and
Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening...
* LOCATIONS...
Western Tennessee
Eastern Arkansas
Northern Mississippi
Northwest Alabama
Louisiana
East Texas
* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
* SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large
hail and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River
Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe
wind gusts are all possible.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are expected from the Sabine River Valley
northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts
are all possible.
...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday
especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing
MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT.
A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock.
This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately
north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel
to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon,
potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has
been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential
semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its
south.
Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60
kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado
potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development
that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced
effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat
curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level
temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector.
Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to
the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective
mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity
to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become
more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight
across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which
could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail.
...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys...
Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the
morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently
over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this
time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the
convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into
western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result
in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe
risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some
embedded tornado potential exists as well.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/05/2025
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River
Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind
gusts are all possible.
...20Z Update...
The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were
to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the
passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS
Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms
along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS.
Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of
which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs
within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See
the previous outlook (below) for more details.
..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/
...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday
especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing
MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT.
A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock.
This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately
north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel
to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon,
potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale
Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has
been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential
semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its
south.
Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60
kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado
potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development
that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced
effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat
curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level
temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector.
Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to
the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective
mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity
to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become
more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight
across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which
could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail.
...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys...
Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the
morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently
over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this
time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the
convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into
western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result
in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe
risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some
embedded tornado potential exists as well.
Read more
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ALABAMA AND INTO PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES...
...SUMMARY...
A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible on Sunday
across parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will
also be possible in parts of the southern Appalachians.
...Synopsis...
On Sunday, a positive-tilt trough will move slowly east out of the
southern Plains and across the lower to mid MS Valley, with
gradually increasing southwesterlies aloft across the Gulf Coast
states. A weak surface low will move out of MS and across northern
AL during the day, then northeastward across the western Carolinas
overnight. A rain-reinforced front will extend south from the low,
from northern AL into eastern MS and LA, with another boundary
extending from TN into VA. A very moist air mass will exist across
the warm sector, with moderate shear supporting scattered severe
storms.
...Eastern MS and LA...AL...
A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold front early
on Sunday where MUCAPE will be on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg.
Severe potential will be mitigated somewhat due to the relatively
warm profiles aloft, however, veering winds with height and around
50 kt at 850 mb may support embedded supercells within the line,
with both wind and brief tornado potential. Depending on the degree
of outflow/convective contamination early in the day, a slightly
better corridor of tornado threat could materialize.
..Jewell.. 04/05/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat is possible on Monday across parts of
the southern Atlantic Seaboard into northern Florida.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A positive-tilt upper trough will sweep across the Southeast and Mid
Atlantic on Monday with a cold front rapidly moving to the East
Coast by 00Z. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be ongoing
throughout the period along the front, and a few strong gusts cannot
be ruled out. Forecast soundings depict poor mid/upper lapse rates
and weak instability ahead of the front. However, the combination of
steepening low-level lapse rates/favorable time of day and moderate
deep-layer mean winds may support sporadic strong wind gusts.
..Jewell.. 04/05/2025
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