RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous forecast.
..Mosier.. 02/23/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/
...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough and associated deep surface low will
continue to progress further into the Atlantic, leading to upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and broad northwest flow across
the central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and an accompanying
continental polar airmass will overspread much of the U.S. east of
the Rockies through the period, limiting thunderstorm potential.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning across portions of the Ozarks east into the
Tennessee Valley.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress quickly from the Pacific
Northwest in the central Plains/Mid MO Valley on Wednesday, moving
within the broadly cyclonic upper flow expected to be in place
across the CONUS. Deepening surface lee troughing is anticipated
ahead of this wave, with cyclogenesis eventually yielding a low that
progresses across the TX Panhandle during the evening and along the
Red River overnight.
A moistening warm sector will precede this surface low and its
parent shortwave, with mid 50s dewpoints reaching across much of
eastern OK and southern/central AR by early Thursday morning. 60s
dewpoints will likely remain confined farther south along the TX
Coast, with warm temperatures aloft precluding deep convection
throughout the warm sector. However, strengthening low to mid-level
flow is anticipated throughout the warm sector, resulting in
moderate to strong warm-air advection across the frontal zone
extending northeastward from the Red River surface low. Showers and
a few thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South and TN Valley
as limited but sufficient buoyancy develops amid the moistening low
to mid-levels and cool temperatures aloft. A few thunderstorms are
also possible immediately ahead of a weak triple point low farther
west in the vicinity of the confluence of the MS and OH rivers.
..Mosier.. 02/23/2026
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