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SPC Mar 3, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z


A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be
the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.

No appreciable change was made to the previously issued convective

..Smith.. 03/03/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024/

Morning water vapor loop shows a southern-stream shortwave trough
moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into FL.  Warm and moist
low-level conditions are in place across FL today, with sufficient
insolation to lead to afternoon temperatures well into the 80sF.  A
combination of weak large-scale ascent and convergence along
sea-breeze boundaries will result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings show MLCAPE values around 1500
J/kg and weak wind fields in the lower 3 km, but 30+ westerly knot
flow above 5km.  This should support a few storms becoming organized
multicells or transient supercells - capable of hail and gusty
winds.  At this time, coverage of the stronger cells appears limited
so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk.

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SPC Mar 3, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z


Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
through Monday night from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Ozarks into the Midwest. Large
hail should be the main threat, but occasional strong/gusty winds
may also occur.

...WI and mid MS Valley...
A belt of strong southwesterly mid-level flow will extend through
the base of a larger-scale trough situated over the north-central
U.S. on Monday.  Although an occluded surface low will migrate north
into northwest Ontario during the day, a secondary weak frontal wave
over the central Great Plains will move east towards the WI/IA/IL
vicinity.  Southerly low-level flow will transport increasingly
moist air and a destabilizing airmass northward into the southwest
Great Lakes/mid MS Valley.  The latest model guidance varies some on
the latitudinal extent of an appreciably unstable warm sector
(south-central WI vs. WI/IL border).  Relatively cool 500-mb
temperatures (-17 deg C) with surface temperatures warming into the
60s to low-mid 70s with dewpoint into the 50s, indicate 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE possible during the afternoon/early evening the
southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterlies.  It remains unclear
whether storms will preferentially develop on the front or whether a
mix of frontal and warm sector storms will develop.  If storms
manage to initiate away from the front (uncertain but possible at
this point based on the latest guidance), an isolated supercell
threat with accompanying hazards may develop over the WI/northern IL
vicinity.  Additional storm development is likely during the evening
along the front with this activity diminishing in intensity as it
moves into IN during the overnight.  

...Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley...
A mid-level disturbance, embedded within the southern stream of
strong westerly flow across the southern U.S., is forecast to move
from northern Mexico and across TX and into the lower MS Valley
during the period.  Aside from this mid-level feature, forcing will
remain somewhat nebulous/weak within a gradually moistening
environment over the southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley.
A dryline over the Edwards Plateau into north TX may focus a few
widely spaced thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening.
Relatively cool mid-level profiles atop a warm boundary layer will
result in steep lapse rates.  Strong high-level westerly flow will
probably aid in some storm organization with large hail a
possibility with any robust/sustained storm.  A more moist/weaker
instability regime will focus over the lower MS Valley.  Some of the
stronger storms will potentially be capable of a large hail/damaging
wind threat.  Some of the stronger storm activity could linger into
the evening hours before gradually diminishing.

..Smith.. 03/03/2024

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