RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM OHIO TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected this afternoon/evening from the Ohio Valley to the northern
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Large hail and severe wind
gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains late this
afternoon/evening.
...OH Valley into New England through late evening...
A surface cyclone will move eastward across southern QC this
afternoon and into northern New England tonight, in advance of a
midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes. An associated
surface cold front will progress southward into the OH Valley and
southeastward to near the southern New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by early Sunday. A convective cluster is
ongoing as of midday in OH to the south of the cold front, and it
appears likely that these storms will be maintained through the
afternoon as surface temperatures continue to warm and MLCAPE
increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Sufficient buoyancy, along
with steepening low-level lapse rates and gradually strengthening
midlevel flow, will result in the potential for downward momentum
transfer and wind damage from eastern OH across PA through the
afternoon (potentially reaching Philadelphia-New York City by this
evening). Otherwise, additional storm development will be possible
later this afternoon along the cold front from the OH Valley into
NY, where a mix of supercells and multicell clusters will be capable
of producing damaging winds, isolated large hail, and a tornado or
two.
...Northern High Plains late this afternoon through late evening...
A midlevel trough will continue eastward from WA/OR to the northern
Rockies, with downstream lee cyclogenesis expected across southeast
MT. Forecast soundings suggest surface temperatures will need to
reach ~90 F to weaken convective inhibition and support thunderstorm
development along the stalled front across northeast MT/northwest ND
late this afternoon/evening. Forecast wind profiles support both
multicell clusters and supercells, and steep lapse rates through
most of the column will favor both severe outflow gusts (up to 75
mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter) with a mix of
high-based supercells and multicell clusters.
...TX/OK this afternoon...
Pockets of surface heating from central/northwest TX into southern
OK, near and south of a weak surface low and MCV, will support
additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Isolated
wind damage and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns
this afternoon.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/06/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging hail and wind (some
significant), and perhaps a tornado or two are forecast across the
northern High Plains. More isolated storms may produce locally
damaging wind gusts centered over southeast Virginia, with a
brief/weak tornado possible from eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas.
...Northern Plains...
A strong shortwave trough will move out of the Pacific Northwest and
across MT Sunday, continuing northeastward into SK overnight. The
southern periphery of the stronger midlevel flow will extend across
WY and into the western Dakotas, aiding deep-layer shear. At the
surface, low pressure will deepen across the northern High Plains,
ahead of a cold front which will surge into eastern MT and northern
WY late in the day.
Storms are likely to form over southeast MT and northern WY during
the late afternoon near the higher terrain, and within the surface
trough from western ND to the Black Hills.
Supercells appear likely initially as deep-layer shear and lapse
rates will be favorable. A tornado or two may occur with these
initial supercells over MT/WY/Black Hills area, and, over northern
ND where low-level SRH will be strongest. Locally significant hail
may occur as well.
With time, one or more corridors of severe and possibly significant
wind damage is expected, as storms produce outflow and propagate
northeastward into the Dakotas. Several models indicate a strong
rear-inflow signal with over 50 kt westerlies just off the surface
behind the activity.
...Eastern OK into AR and southwest MO...
A weak midlevel wave will move northeastward across OK and toward
MO, while southerly surface winds generally increase across the
Plains. A broad area of upper 60s F to 70s F dewpoints will develop
northward over the entire region, with areas of moderate instability
and high PWAT developing. Some increase in diurnal convection is
anticipated, related to the midlevel wave, which may enhance wind
profiles somewhat. Forecast soundings indicate veering winds with
height, and 200-300 m2/s2 SRH may develop late in the day and into
the evening. In addition to heavy rain, any stronger cells that
develop may acquire rotation, with a brief tornado or two possible.
...Southeast VA into far northeast NC...
A shortwave trough will exist over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast,
with 30-40 kt midlevel northwesterlies into eastern VA. A surface
trough will extend southwestward from the parent low over the
Maritimes, into the DelMarVa, southeast VA and northeast NC during
the afternoon. Strong heating will result in steep boundary layer
lapse rates, while sufficient low-level moisture supports marginal
instability. Given the favorable time of day and convergence near
the trough, isolated cells are expected which may produce locally
damaging gusts.
..Jewell.. 06/06/2026
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