RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous
United States through tonight.
...Central portion of the Florida Peninsula...
A diffuse frontal zone modulated by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorm activity will remain draped over the central portion of
the FL Peninsula through tonight. A very moist tropospheric profile
(sampled by the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob) featuring weak lapse rates
will limit overall updraft strength with scattered convection this
afternoon across the Peninsula. Weak flow (at or below 20 kt) from
surface through 300 mb will also act to restrict storm organization
potential. Although a brief tornado/waterspout near the coast
cannot be ruled out, it appears the risk for transient supercell
structures and an associated threat for a brief tornado appear
sufficiently low to preclude introducing severe probabilities this
outlook update.
...Northern New York...
Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will be possible late today and
more so into tonight, influenced by an amplifying upstream
upper-level trough and approaching cold front. Overall buoyancy
will be limited, but still sufficient for the possibility of
thunderstorms. Furthermore, some convective enhancement/gusty winds
are plausible tonight given the increasing magnitude of the
low/mid-tropospheric flow and steepening lapse rates atop the
boundary layer.
..Smith/Barnes.. 10/07/2026
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk of severe thunderstorms appears low across the U.S. for
Thursday through Thursday night.
...Discussion...
A generally zonal belt of stronger westerlies is likely to persist
into and through this period across the northern mid-latitudes of
North America. Within this regime, broad mid/upper troughing is
forecast to continue shifting east of the lower Great Lakes through
the northern Atlantic Seaboard. Forcing for ascent associated with
an embedded short wave trough may support renewed cyclogenesis
across eastern Quebec through Newfoundland and Labrador, with an
initial trailing cold front advancing offshore of much of the
northern through middle Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday night.
Upstream, cyclogenesis also appears likely to the lee of the
Canadian Rockies, in advance of larger-scale mid/upper troughing
digging across and inland of the British Columbia coast. It appears
that this will be accompanied by deepening surface troughing to the
lee of the northern U.S. Rockies, through much of the northern and
central Great Plains, by 12Z Friday.
High boundary-layer moisture content remains confined to the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, and is not likely to
appreciably return northward. However, a corridor of modest
low-level moisture may linger along a stalling to northward
returning segment of the frontal zone across the central Great
Plains into middle to lower Missouri Valley. Even so, latest model
output suggests that this will probably remain capped by warm, dry
air in the lower/mid-troposphere, with little support for the
initiation of thunderstorms, aside from, perhaps, better moisture
return within a corridor of strengthening lower/mid-level warm
advection across Iowa late Thursday night into early Friday.
In the wake of the initial surface cold front, across parts of the
lower Great Lakes region into northern New England, fairly
significant cooling in the 700-500 mb layer may be sufficient to
contribute to scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity.
In lower-latitudes, convection-allowing guidance suggests that
modestly cool mid-levels, in the wake of digging upper-level
troughing across the southern Rockies and Great Plains, may
contribute to scattered diurnal thunderstorm development across
parts of the Four Corner's states into Rio Grande Valley.
Downstream of the digging upper troughing, and a potentially
strengthening hurricane (Isaias) slowly migrating northeastward
across the southwestern Gulf Basin, scattered thunderstorm activity
will remain possible within the lingering high moisture content air
near northeastern Gulf coastal areas, and across portions of the
Florida Peninsula, Thursday through Thursday night.
..Kerr.. 10/07/2026
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