RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
An increasing tornado risk may develop into early Saturday morning
along the north-central Gulf Coast in association with the
developing tropical cyclone.
...Discussion...
Severe storm chances will be low across most of the CONUS on Friday,
the exception being over the northern Gulf Coast late Friday night
into Saturday morning.
NHC currently forecasts Tropical Depression 9 to become a hurricane
late Thursday, strengthening further into Friday over the Gulf of
America. Some uncertainty exists as to the timing of an eventual
forward acceleration northward. In any case, the system is forecast
to affect the northern Gulf Coast late in the Day 3 period (which
ends at 12Z Saturday morning), and as such, low probabilities for
tornado risk have been added.
Low-level shear/SRH will be very strong east of the storm center.
The surface air mass may remain stable over the mainland until very
close to 12Z Saturday, with a greater chance of larger SBCAPE over
extreme southeast LA prior to 12Z. Once the coastal boundary moves
inland, a surge of mid 70s F dewpoints and southerly winds will lead
to overly enlarged hodographs, supporting rotation in the stronger
cells with tornado potential.
..Jewell.. 10/07/2026
Read more
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2026
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For Sat/D4, the latest NHC guidance (as of this writing) has brought
the center track of the developing hurricane farther east toward
southern AL and the western FL Panhandle, and thus the Slight Risk
for tornado potential has been shunted east. Further, given the
likelihood of a stronger cyclone and faster forward motion, the
Slight Risk has also been expanded farther north/inland, as it
appears the mid 70s F dewpoints may expand across much of southern
AL. The strong low-level shear east of the center, and increasing
midlevel winds (as a shortwave trough deepens over the Lower MS
Valley) should support a few supercells with tornado potential. It
should be noted that the Slight Risk area may shift in subsequent
outlooks if the center track shifts.
For Sun/D5, the shortwave trough and remnants of the tropical
cyclone will generally move northeastward toward the Appalachians
and toward the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic. It is possible
that the upper system outruns the unstable warm sector, but at least
a low end chance of severe is not out of the question.
For the remainder of the period, there may be a chance of severe
storms over parts of the Southern Plains into Wed/D8 as a developing
western trough eventually moves across the Rockies, and low-level
moisture returns in earnest. However, the evolution of this trough
and date of wave ejection is low predictability.
Read more
