RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.
..Gleason.. 02/02/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0930 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026/
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper ridging will build over the West Coast states today, while
multiple mid-level shortwave troughs move east-southeastward across
the central/eastern CONUS. Even though modest low-level moisture
will return late tonight across parts of south/east TX towards the
ArkLaTex, generally stable and/or dry conditions will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS through the end of the period.
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale, positive-tilt upper trough will cover much of the
central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is
forecast to move across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast
vicinity, while another drops southward across the southern Plains.
Weak convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near a cold
front from the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. This convection may
continue through the day across parts of SC/GA and north FL, as the
front advances southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak,
and forecast soundings suggest that convection will generally be too
weak and low-topped for thunderstorm development. While very
isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, coverage currently
appears too limited for any general thunderstorm areas.
..Dean.. 02/02/2026
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