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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 140710
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
310 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021

.Short Term...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021

Early this Morning...high pressure continues to be the main weather
feature across the eastern third of the country.  So, the radar
mosaic and GOES16 are quiet across central Indiana.  Any activity at
this time is confined to the central and western portions of the
U.S. where a stationary boundary is draped between two surface lows
over Utah and Nebraska.  Currently, temperatures across central
Indiana are generally in the 40s with calm winds and significant
radiational cooling.

Today/Tonight...skies will initially be clear this morning with time
cross sections showing a dry column until the early afternoon. At
that point though, skies will become partly cloudy as moisture
increases in the mid levels.  Nonetheless, there will still be
plenty of sunshine.  And, as easterly winds shift to the south this
afternoon, weak warm advection will commence.  Daytime highs are
progged to top off in the upper 60s/low 70s.  Tonight, the warm
advection will continue as a warm front pushes farther into the
Missouri Valley, but central Indiana will still be under the
influence of high pressure.  So, will trend toward a dry forecast
with overnight lows climbing back into the upper 40s/low 50/s

Saturday...the area of high pressure will finally push eastward into
West Virginia/Virginia, and a weak wave will break down the ridge
aloft.  Meanwhile, that aforementioned warm front will be just to
the southwest of the forecast area as an additional source of
forcing.  As a result, will have to insert mention of rain showers
from west to east across the forecast area starting Saturday
morning.  The progression will be slow, however, with the eastern
half of central Indiana still dry on Saturday afternoon. And,
daytime highs will top off in the low 70s in the warm, southerly
flow.

&&

.Long Term...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021

Upper level energy will interact with a front through much of the
long term, keeping frequent chances for rain across central Indiana.
Warmer air will return during the long term as well.

The initial upper wave will be north of the area and will interact
with a warm front to the south of the Ohio River Saturday night into
Sunday. The better moisture will remain south of the area, closer to
the surface front. Thus, it looks like any heavy rain will remain
out of central Indiana. Will have highest PoPs south, closer to the
better moisture.

An upper wave will move in for Sunday night into Monday. This one
will be farther south and will interact better with the front to the
south. The result will be better chances for rain to the area during
this time. Precipitable water values over an inch (and nearing 1.5"
far southwest) could help yield locally heavy rain, mainly south.

During the remainder of the period, an upper low will move out of
the southwest states. Some questions remain on the exact evolution,
but this should bring southerly flow aloft. This will allow the warm
front to move north through the area, bringing in a flow of warm and
humid air. The airmass plus pieces of energy ejecting from the upper
low will keep chances for rain across central Indiana through the
period.

Thanks to the southerly flow behind the warm front, above normal
temperatures will return to the area by mid-week next week.

&&

.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 AM EDT Fri May 14 2021

IMPACTS:
- VFR conditions through the period.

DISCUSSION: Mid deck will persist for a few hours into valid time,
then break up. Cumulus will pop up mid to late morning and then
continue into Friday evening. Winds should remain less than 10kt,
becoming southerly on Friday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short Term...TDUD
Long Term...50
Aviation...50

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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