464
FXUS63 KIND 220723
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Steady warming through the weekend into early next week, with
  highs near or above 50 most areas Monday - Wednesday

- Breezy at times this week, especially Monday

- A low chance for rain Monday night with slightly more substantial
  chances Wednesday - Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 223 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Quiet weather is anticipated today and tonight as surface high
pressure remains the dominant force across the area.

Temperatures begin to moderate today after another cold morning, as
the Arctic airmass associated with the weakening surface high begins
to steadily erode and modest warm advection begins.

A weak upper wave will pass to our south through early afternoon,
which will bring some mid and high cloud cover primarily to those
southern areas of central Indiana. This will limit insolation
somewhat and may have a minor impact on high temperatures, and have
made some tweaks to account for this, but significant dry air below
about 10kft will prevent any precipitation. Afternoon highs should
generally reach the low to mid 30s across the area.

The aforementioned WAA and good insolation, particularly in the
afternoon and throughout most of the day north, will produce a
decently mixed PBL of about 3-4kft in depth, and promote some
gustiness during the midday to afternoon hours, primarily central
and north, with gusts as high as about 20 MPH.

Skies will become clear to mostly clear across the entire area by
mid afternoon and this will persist into the evening before a slight
increase in high cloud late. Thus, radiational cooling conditions
will be quite good, especially early in the night, and expect lows
to drop close to expected dewpoints, a degree or two either side of
20. This is slightly below NBM numbers and minor adjustments were
made.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 223 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Mundane weather is expected early in the long term period. The main
focus will be on the quick rebound in temperatures aided by low-
level warm air advection. Look for temperatures to warm into the 50s
early to middle of next week. These abnormally warm temperatures are
going to feel incredible after the very cold temperatures this past
week. Model guidance shows a few upper level waves passing near the
region during this period, but a southern stream trough will keep
gulf moisture locked to the south. This along with weak overall
forcing is likely going to limit precipitation chances early next
week. There are a few models suggesting there may be sufficient
moisture to produce a few showers along a passing front Monday
night. The potential is rather low due to limited moisture and
forcing, but will keep low POPs in the forecast given latest
guidance. Temperatures will be well above freezing keeping rain the
predominant precipitation type. Breezy conditions are also likely
late in the day Monday and possibly into the evening as a strong LLJ
traverses the area. Clouds may increase at times as these subtle
waves move through.

Another upper wave with slightly deeper moisture return is expected
to track through the central CONUS midweek bringing a better shot
for precipitation. More available moisture combined with stronger
overall forcing supports higher POPs compared to the system earlier
in the week. However, gulf moisture still remaining mostly locked to
the south limits confidence in coverage of precipitation and will
likely keep rainfall amounts light. Dry conditions are then expected
to return Thursday into Friday with surface high pressure building.
Temperatures are also expected to trend cooler due to cold air
advection behind the departing system.

Confidence decreases towards late week as model spread increases.
Despite the larger spread in model solutions, below normal
temperatures next weekend into the first week of March still look
likely. The reason for this is most long range guidance shows deep
broad troughing over the eastern CONUS with reinforcing shots of
colder air from embedded upper waves. The uncertainty lies in how
cold temperatures will get. The good news is that the cooldown late
next week looks much less significant than this past week. There is
a low chance for precipitation Friday night into Saturday with a
passing upper level wave. The strongest forcing and deeper moisture
should remain north of central Indiana, but there is some potential
for light precipitation. Snow could also mix in as temperatures
trend cooler.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1222 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

High pressure will be in control at the surface throughout the
period, leading to mostly clear skies, unrestricted visibility, and
light overnight winds. Winds during the daytime will be around 8-
12KT, and throughout the period, winds will be generally be from 210-
230 degrees. An upper level wave passing to our south will allow a
bit of mid or high cloud to slide across the area today, but this
will be of no consequence.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Nield