100
FXUS63 KIND 130204
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- HIGH WIND WARNING in effect across northeast central Indiana 500
  AM to 800 PM Friday...Wind Advisory in effect elsewhere

- Showers and storms return Sunday, low end chance for severe weather

- Much colder air early next week, lows in the teens Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Precipitation-free overnight on tap for central Indiana under mid
cloud ceiling...albeit with increasing and eventually gusty winds as
potent surface low tracks east into Wisconsin.  Southerly flow will
veer to south-southwest later tonight as wind gusts surpass 30 mph
by 300 AM...and by daybreak, exceed 45 mph across the region`s
northern tier, while reaching 35 for southern zones.  Corresponding
strong warm advection will limit diurnal drop in temperatures to
only a few degrees...with lows around 40F for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday Night...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Today through Friday...

Quiet weather conditions are expected through much of tonight as
surface high pressure remains near the region. A strong low pressure
is then expected to move into the Great Lakes Region late tonight
into Friday. This will lead to increasingly windy conditions from a
strengthening MSLP gradient. There is a low chance for a few showers
across north-central Indiana tonight as the system passes, but a
significant dry layer in the low levels will greatly limit the
potential for measurable precipitation. Most high resolution
guidance has a good handle on this dry layer showing dry
conditions persisting. Diurnal mixing into a strong LLJ during the
day Friday is expected to promote even stronger wind gusts.

Northeast portions of central Indiana will likely see the strongest
wind gusts. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 5am to 8pm
Friday with the potential for gusts between 55-60 mph. However,
the strongest gusts may only occur within a more brief window
between increasing diurnal mixing Friday morning and before the
strong LLJ shifts east later in the day. A Wind Advisory is in
effect for the remainder of central Indiana with gusts between 45
to 55 mph possibly. The higher end 50 to 55 mph gusts are mainly
expected across areas further north and east in the advisory.

The low pressure system and associated LLJ shifting further east
should allow for winds to begin diminishing from west to east around
the mid-late afternoon hours. Increasing S/SW flow will promote
warming temperatures tonight into Friday. Expect lows ranging from
the upper 30s to low 40s tonight with highs in the 50s Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night...

Look for winds to quickly subside Friday evening as the
aforementioned system finally departs and PBL decoupling cuts off
diurnal mixing. Quiet weather conditions are then expected through
Saturday as surface high pressure builds in. Subtle cold air
advection should cool temperatures slightly. Lows Friday night
should generally bottom out in the low to mid 30s. Expect highs on
Saturday to warm into the upper 40s across the north to as high as
the upper 50s or near 60F in far southern counties. Low rain chances
return very late Saturday night ahead of an approaching system, but
antecedent dry air will likely limit any chance for measurable
precipitation once again.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Sunday through Thursday...

Active weather is expected on Sunday and Sunday Night. Models
suggest a stronger upper trough over the plains providing warmer
southwest flow across Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile within
the lower levels strong low pressure over Illinois will move across
northern Indiana on Sunday Night before arriving in Michigan on
Monday. This will place Indiana within the warm sector again on
Sunday and Sunday Night. Best saturation with this frontal passages
looks to occur on Sunday night as steep lapse rates but limited CAPE
and high lower lvl helicity is in place. Thus best chances for
precip will be on Sunday night. Afternoon chances cannot be ruled
out due to daytime heating providing additional lift. Given the
expected shear and warm, moist air mass, and the wind field aloft,
severe weather will be a possibility.

Monday through Wednesday...

Much colder weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday as cold,
northwest surface flow will be left in the wake of the departing low
along with the arrival of large area of high pressure. On Monday
morning, wrap around moisture and cold temperatures could lead to
some snow. At that time, forecast soundings show saturation within
the mid and lower levels at values well below freezing. Any wrap
around precipitation should end by Monday night as the column
becomes much drier due to subsidence. Strong cold air advection is
seen to arrive on Monday with 850mb temps falling to near -14c. This
will give central Indiana another strong taste of winter as lows
fall below freezing on Monday through Wednesday. The coldest morning
looks to be Tuesday, when lows fall to the teens. High temperatures
will not be much of an improvement within the cold air mass as highs
reach only the lower 30s. Warm air advection is expected to return
on Wednesday, as the core of the cold air finally begins to drift
east and exit.

On Wednesday Night into Thursday...

Stronger ridging is will begin to build over the Rockies aloft,
continuing to allow subsidence and northwest flow over the upper
midwest and plains states, spilling across the Ohio Valley. This
will trend the weather toward dry weather with milder, more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty to windy late tonight through Friday...gusts up to 30-45KT
within 07Z-23Z

- Period of non-convective LLWS possible between 07-15Z prior to
stronger gusts

Discussion:

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although gusty
to high winds will be the rule from late tonight through late day
Friday.  Potent surface low pressure entering Minnesota this evening
will cross the Great Lakes Friday...meanwhile swinging its quasi-
circular gradient field through Indiana.  Increasing flow tonight
will back slightly to southerly by 02Z...and veer back to SSW by 09Z.
Steadily increasing flow will gust to 32KT at KHUF/KLAF by 08Z...and
gust to 35-40KT at all TAF sites by 12Z.

Windy Friday as southwest flow steadily veers to westerly by 17Z.
Flow will be strongest across the northern Midwest...sustained at
KIND/KLAF to 23-27KT with gusts as high as 43-45KT during 13Z-21Z.
At KHUF/KBMG, winds will be sustained as high as 18-22KT, gusting up
to 39KT through 21Z. A period of non-convective LLWS is possible
between 07Z-15Z Friday before gusts quickly increase.  For Friday
evening at KIND, winds will continue veering from WNW to NW while
diminishing to under 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ021-030-
031-038>042-048-049-057.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ028-029-
035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...AGM