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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 031855
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
155 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

.Key Messages...

- Near record highs Monday, with temperatures above normal
  throughout the week, particularly through Tuesday.

- Multiple chances for rain beginning Monday night through the week,
  with a brief break Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

- Embedded thunderstorms possible Monday night through Tuesday
  evening. Severe storms are not expected, although the strongest
  storms may be able to produce small hail and heavy downpours.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Skies were sunny across central Indiana this afternoon with all of
the stratus having finally dissipated. Temperatures were responding
nicely to the sunshine and were in the 60s.

Central Indiana will remain in between systems through the short
term, with an upper trough and front to the west and surface high
pressure to the east.

Rest of This Afternoon...

Sunny and warm weather will persist, along with some gusty winds
thanks to mixing.

Tonight...

Skies will remain mostly clear this evening, but low level moisture
increases again overnight. This will create another cloud deck
across much of if not the entire area. Will go with mostly cloudy
skies overnight. These plus southerly winds will keep temperatures
in the 50s for lows.

There will be some isentropic lift overnight, but this lift will
generally stay above the available moisture. Enough may get sneak
low enough to help generate a few sprinkles, but odds and coverage
are both too low to mention in the forecast.

Monday...

Similar conditions will continue Monday morning. Will keep skies
mostly cloudy during the morning. Mixing will allow some sunshine to
break through during the afternoon, but skies will still be partly
cloudy.

Winds will become gusty when mixing deepens during the afternoon. The
gusty southwest winds will advect warmer air into the area, and the
sunshine will help. Without the morning cloud cover, near record
temperatures would be a slam dunk. However, the clouds could throw a
wrench into things.

Will trim back highs just a bit from previous forecasts based on the
cloud trends and the latest probabilistic guidance from ensembles.
(NBM`s 10th and 90th percentiles for Indy are 71 and 78
respectively. The record high is 78).

&&

.Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

A split flow regime will persist through much of the long term. A
strong, broadly cyclonic polar jet core will steadily round the
longwave trough as a lead shortwave closes off and lifts
northeastward from the northern CONUS into Ontario/Quebec, while the
strong subtropical jet from the Southwest back into the Pacific will
remain nearly stationary and quasizonal through mid week. This
subtropical jet core will amplify and shift eastward during the
latter half of the week as the longwave trough does the same.

At the surface, ongoing lee cyclogenesis over the central/southern
High Plains will continue along a baroclinic zone extending from the
northern Plains/upper Midwest back into the central Rockies. As the
aforementioned shortwave and polar jet shift northeastward, this
cyclone will translate northeastward and weaken somewhat in response
to the diminishing jet level flow as the boundary pushes toward the
region. Despite this decrease in flow aloft, continuing modest
diffluence will promote one or more additional areas of weak
cyclogenesis along the boundary as well.

Ahead of the front, strong southerly flow will promote continued
poleward transport of heat and moisture during the early part of the
week, though a lack of more amplified flow in the mid and upper
levels will keep a very dry column in place aloft until at least
late Monday night, when the front approaches the area and moisture
pooling along and behind it come into play. Some light convective
showers will be possible as early as Monday evening in the warm
advection regime, but higher precipitation chances will be limited
to late Monday night into Tuesday evening in the vicinity of the
boundary, owing to both the moisture pooling/deeper saturation, and
the stronger frontal forcing helping to account for displaced upper
level support.

Some primarily elevated instability, save for a short window on
Tuesday, will require chances for embedded thunderstorms - though
modest at best deep layer shear will prevent an organized severe
storm threat. The strongest of the storms may be able to produce
some small hail and heavy downpours Monday night into Tuesday,
however, owing to concentration of the bulk of the instability above
the wet bulb zero height, in and around the hail growth zone, along
with precipitable water values at or above the 90th percentile
climatologically near the frontal zone. This is additionally
supported by experimental machine learning and analog guidance.

Showers may linger into early Wednesday, as additional cyclogenesis
occurs over the southeastern US owing to a strengthening disturbance
off the left exit region of the subtropical jet. However, much of
the guidance keeps the precipitation shield associated with this
system to our east. High pressure pushes into the region late
Wednesday into Thursday, providing a break in precipitation chances
before another, stronger surface low associated with the amplifying
large scale pattern moves into the region, bringing showers back to
the area.

Temperatures throughout the long term, even after the early week
frontal passage, will remain above normal, and the blend appears to
have this handled adequately. A more significant intrusion of cooler
air in the wake of the late week low will bring temperatures back
down, though likely only to near or just below seasonal normals, and
longer range outlooks indicate this cooldown is likely to be
relatively brief as an active start to climatological spring
continues.

&&

.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1148 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024

Impacts:

- Gusty southerly winds this afternoon and again Monday
- MVFR ceilings will develop overnight and persist into mid-morning
  Monday

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the first half of the TAF valid
period. Wind gusts will increase to over 20kt this afternoon and
persist into this evening, especially at KLAF. Gusts will diminish
overnight but return Monday late morning into the afternoon.

Looks like another stratus deck will form tonight, with ceilings
dropping to below 2000FT after 08Z or so. These will persist into
mid-morning Monday before gradually mixing out.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short Term...50
Long Term...Nield
Aviation...50

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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