680
FXUS63 KIND 072345
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
745 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions persist through Friday with daily highs
  reaching the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and the low 80s on
  Friday.

- Fire weather conditions will require monitoring as several
  afternoons will likely feature minimum RH values well down into
  the 30s if not lower at times

- Tropical moisture surging northward on Saturday will bring
  rainfall to central Indiana Saturday Night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cool front stretching across
lower Michigan to NW Indiana, Central Illinois and northern MO.
GOES19 shows clear skies across the state and along the front. Dew
points remained around 50. Aloft, northwest flow was in place, with
only some passing Pacific moisture in place. No precipitation was
found with the front.

Tonight...

Models suggest the cold front will sag southward across Indiana this
evening, allowing the winds to shift to the northwest. No
precipitation will be expected as this will be a dry front, and
barely any clouds present. Thus look for mostly clear skies, with
lows around 50.

Thursday and Friday... Aloft, persistent NW flow aloft on Thursday
is expected to modify into a building ridge axis across Indiana and
the Great Lakes on Friday. Both of these things will continue to
result in subsidence across central Indiana. Meanwhile at the
surface, strong Canadian high pressure will settle across Indiana
from the northern plains before moving to the middle Atlantic states
by Friday. This will result in continued dry weather with plenty of
daytime sunshine and overall pleasant weather. Highs on Thursday
should reach the upper 70s due to mild cold air advection. Warmer
temperatures in the 80s will arrive on Friday as southerly flow
returns due to the surface high to the east.

Saturday through Wednesday...

Wet weather will be expected to arrive on Saturday night as remnants
from a tropical system are suggested to advance to and pass across
Central Indiana through Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest pwats
around 1.5 inches, plenty moist. Thus high pops will be used during
this time. The pressure gradient at this time does not to be overly
strong, so strong winds are not expected, but wind gusts around 25
mph cannot be ruled out.

Monday...

Hurricane remnants look to exit on Sunday night into Monday,
allowing for dry weather to return to start the next work week.
Forecast soundings trend to a dry air mass as surface ridging builds
across the area from the deep south. Southwesterly lower level flow
will remain in place, keeping temperatures above normal.

Tuesday...

A quick moving cold front is expected to pass across Indiana on
Tuesday from the upper midwest. The day should begin within the warm
sector, but by afternoon the front will have passed and winds will
become northwesterly with strong cold air advection suggested.
Forecast soundings show limited instability and fail to saturate the
column. However given the strong change in airmass, at least some
pops will need to be included for now. Dry weather will arrive by
Tuesday night as Canadian high pressure builds across Indiana. The
core of the cold air will be well to the northeast, 850mb temps will
fall to around 8C, allowing for more seasonal temperatures on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Impacts:

- Light winds will veer to 310-350 degrees by 06Z tonight

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue to dominate across central Indiana
through Thursday evening as a subtle, reinforcing shot of surface
high pressure builds from the southern Canadian plains into the
Midwest.  Clear skies will prevail most of the time with a FEW to
perhaps briefly SCT cumulus Thursday afternoon.  Flow, which has
already veered to west-northwest at KLAF...will shift from SW to NW
through the early overnight.  Sustained winds will near the 7KT/10KT
thresholds at KLAF/KIND by Thursday afternoon...with mainly 6KT/less
expected at KHUF/KBMG.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...Puma