688
FXUS63 KIND 051814
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
214 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and cooler weather through Tuesday

- Frost Advisory SE Central Indiana tonight/Freeze Watch northern
  half of central Indiana Monday night

- Warming trend begins Wednesday and continues through next weekend

- Isolated to scattered rain chances Thursday through Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Stratocu beginning to thin from the west as drier air gradually
filters into the region. Brisk W/NW winds continue and are providing
a distinctly chilly feel to the air today. 18Z temperatures ranged
from the lower 40s over northeast parts of central Indiana to the
lower 50s over far southern counties.

A much quieter pattern has taken hold and will remain over the Ohio
Valley through midweek. The primary focus through Tuesday night will
be on the cooler temperatures and the threat for frost/freeze
conditions most notably on Monday night.

SENSIBLE WEATHER

A large area of high pressure resides over the central Plains this
afternoon and will shift into the lower Mississippi Valley by late
Monday. A fast moving cold front will swing through the area early
Monday with a stronger area of high pressure diving out of the
Canadian prairies for Monday night and Tuesday maintaining dry weather
while sending a reinforcing shot of unseasonably chilly air into the
region.

The stratocu will continue to erode from the west through late day
with skies becoming generally clear this evening into the first half
of the night. The aforementioned frontal boundary will approach
northern counties predawn Monday but with minimal moisture and
forcing aloft...should just see a brief increase in clouds over the
northeast half of the forecast area. A few sprinkles are possible
too from Kokomo to Muncie. Once the front passes...skies will revert
to mostly sunny for the rest of the day Monday with northwest wind
gusts resuming through the afternoon. Mainly clear skies persist
Monday night into Tuesday with clouds increasing Tuesday night as
the high pressure shifts east over New York state and a warm front
approaches from the southwest.

FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES

With mainly clear skies for much of the night and winds becoming
light and variable...temps will fall into the mid 30s across the
southeast counties. Have issued a Frost Advisory as frost accrual is
expected to be most prevalent over south central and east central
Indiana. Elsewhere across the forecast area temperatures should
remain a couple degrees warmer in most areas and limit more
widespread frost development.

The greatest confidence in impacts is Monday night as a colder
airmass settles over the region. While winds are likely to remain a
bit higher than tonight...temperatures will fall into the upper 20s
and lower 30s over much of the northern half of the forecast area.
With confidence elevated have introduced a Freeze Watch for this
area late Monday night and Tuesday morning. May need another
headline Tuesday night over parts of the area but the increase in
clouds and winds makes this more uncertain at this time.

Temps...the sun will allow for a slightly warmer day Monday despite
the renewed cold advection. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the
next week to 10 days at least with highs in the mid and upper 40s
over much of central Indiana. Low 50s will be possible across
southern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The second half of the upcoming week will see a return to above
normal temperatures as high pressure shifts east and the upper level
flow regime returns to general ridging over the eastern U S with a
broad trough in the west. Warm advection in the low levels will
resume as a frontal boundary oscillates across the northern Plains
and upper Midwest in response to the influence of multiple
disturbances through the weekend.

Dry weather persists on Wednesday as the region remain under the
influence of the departing high pressure. The aforementioned frontal
boundary will slip south into the lower Great Lakes on Thursday and
may get close enough to warrant an isolated convective threat over
the northwest part of the forecast area Thursday and Friday.
Otherwise...anticipate a broader risk for rain and thunderstorms by
next weekend as low pressure ejecting out of the Plains pushes the
boundary further south into the area.

After the cooler temperatures early this week...a warming trend will
commence on Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the
extended. Highs by Saturday and Sunday may approach 80 in some
locations. There is growing confidence in a return to a more active
pattern next week with warm temperatures continuing as well.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings will lift to VFR through the afternoon

- Peak wind gusts from the W/NW at 20 to 25kts through late day then
again Monday from the NW

Discussion:

Extensive stratocu deck present early this afternoon within the
postfrontal airmass. Ceilings have been at MVFR levels since earlier
this morning but will see that mix to VFR over the next few hours as
drier air gradually advects into the region. Skies will clear this
evening as the region comes under the influence of high pressure to
the southwest. W/NW winds will gust up to 20 to 25kts through the
afternoon then diminish to light westerly prior to sunset.

A weak frontal boundary will pass through the region Monday morning
and may bring an increase in clouds for a short period. More
noticeably...the passage of the front will veer winds to northwest
with gusts peaking at 20 to 25kts resuming for much of the day
Monday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-054>057-065.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for INZ042-049-056-
057-063>065-069>072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan