428
FXUS63 KIND 022312
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
612 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the potential of a narrow
  band of accumulating snow tomorrow over southern portions of
  the area. Up to 2 inches of snow is possible.

- Below normal temperatures is expected to continue through
  Sunday.

- Increasing confidence in a warming trend for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Low stratus persists across the region as a weak clipper system
departs to our northeast. Rich low-level moisture and broad cyclonic
flow should allow stratus to persist into the night. Low
temperatures are expected to be much warmer than recent nights, due
to cloud cover and weak warm air advection.

Warm air advection continues into Tuesday as yet another system
approaches from the west. This system shows up nicely on satellite
over the northern Plains and is diving southeast towards Missouri.
Guidance shows the parent shortwave de-amplifying with time while
interacting with a southern stream trough lifting northeast out of
the New Mexico. This interaction allows surface cyclogenesis to
begin across southern Missouri, with the resultant low pushing
eastward through the Ohio River Valley.

Guidance has been in decent agreement showing mid-level
frontogenesis as the low impinges on a quasi-stationary baroclinic
zone, allowing for the formation of a narrow band of moderate to
heavy snowfall. That said, guidance has trended weaker and further
south and east over the past day. This is likely due to a more
disorganized / de-amplified initial shortwave. Still, even these
weaker solutions do allow for the band to take shape somewhere over
the southern / eastern portions of the CWA. The big question is
exactly where, because given how narrow the band appears to be...a
small difference in location may lead to a large difference in
expected snowfall. Additionally, timing of the band matters too, and
should it take too long to develop then we may not see much snow at
all in central Indiana as the band would then predominately develop
east of the area.

Despite the uncertainty, due to the potential for an impactful
narrow band of snowfall, we`ve issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
around 2 inches of snow over the southeast corner of our CWA
including Bartholomew, Jackson, Jennings, and Decatur Counties.
Again, uncertainty is greater than normal for this time range, and
total snowfall is subject to the exact location of a narrow band of
moderate to heavy snow. A few miles will make a big difference with
this event. We will refine the forecast as needed with new data
coming in. The current advisory may be trimmed or expanded depending
on how things develop. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 252 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

The long term will initially be dictated by a continued deep longwave
trough over the Eastern CONUS and strong ridging over the Western
CONUS. This has placed the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in modest
northwest flow with a baroclinic zone just to our west. In return,
the pattern is expected to produce varying temperature swings
ranging from highs in the low 20s to low 30s through Sunday.

Precipitation is likely to be below normal for the long term as NW
flow continues to reduce return moisture ahead of weak disturbances.
The only date with any potential for precipitation looks to be
Friday as a low passes to the north of central Indiana. As stated,
available moisture will be limited, but there may be enough lift in
a semi-saturated 850-700mb layer for a brief period of snow showers
within confluence along the passing boundary. For now, PoPs are kept
mostly below 15% for Friday due to lack of confidence in measurable
precipitation, but this may change in the coming days as high
resolution guidance better simulates QPF south of the low.

Beyond Sunday, current teleconnection forecasts are trending towards
predominately neutral, leading to a likely pattern change as a
strong vort max intersects the ongoing Western CONUS ridge. This
should lead to the ridge axis shifting eastward early next week,
placing central Indiana in a predominate warming trend. This said,
there is still a lot of uncertainty on any large scale disturbances,
and how that will impact surface conditions.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 611 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

Impacts:

- Flurries with MVFR ceilings persist into tonight.
- Light snow will develop across the region predawn Tuesday
- MVFR visibilities possible at all terminals lasting into early
  Tuesday afternoon for KBMG.

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings will persist overnight as low level flow remains weak
and warmer air aloft continues to strengthen an inversion. There is
some indications based on recent radar imagery that flurries will be
supported by subtle lift along a weak boundary extending between
KIND and KLAF. Therefore have opted to put this prevailing at KIND
and tempo for KHUF AND KLAF.

A weak storm system arrives on Tuesday with light snow once again
developing early in the morning. Snowfall may organize into a narrow
band, beginning near LAF and IND then dropping south to KHUF and
KBMG by 12Z. Brief IFR visibilities are possible in this band,
especially near BMG. Have opted to introduce tempo MVFR vis at
KLAF/KIND and KHUF, with prevailing at KBMG. Winds will be light and
variable until the passage of a secondary cold front tomorrow
morning towards the end of the snowfall with winds picking up out of
the north-northeast from 7-10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for INZ064-
065-071-072.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Crosbie