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SPC Oct 19, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

Medium-range models are in good agreement through the day3 period
then begin to diverge significantly by Sunday. Remnants of a likely
organized squall line should advance across the central/southern
Plains into portions of the lower MS Valley/upper TX Coast Sunday.
However, ECMWF/GFS/Canadian are considerably different in their
strength/placement of the upper trough by day4 and considerable
convective overturning could prove problematic in predictability of
organized convection. Thunderstorms should develop across the
undisturbed warm sector, in advance of the trough, day4-5 but too
much uncertainty exists at this time to warrant an outlook.

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