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SPC Aug 18, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SD...FAR SOUTHWEST MN...AND FAR NORTHWEST IA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as
the primary threats are expected tonight across a large portion of
the northern to central Great Plains into the Midwest.

...01Z Update...

...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to persist along
southern portions cold front currently extending from north-central
MN southwestward into the NE Panhandle. Air mass ahead of the cold
front is characterized by very moist low-levels (i.e. surface
dewpoints in the 70s across eastern SD), steep mid-level lapse
rates, and very strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg). Given
the linear forcing, a linear storm mode remains favored with strong
wind gusts as the primary severe threat. Additionally, storm cluster
across south-central SD has recently shown a surge in forward
motion, suggesting more forward-propagation off the front may be
occurring.

Farther south (across northern KS and far southern NE), a discrete
storm continues to progress eastward across Sheridan County.
Potential exists for this storm become more organized and strengthen
as it continues eastward into more favorable low-level moisture and
a strengthening low-level jet. Additionally, overall storm coverage
is expected to increase ahead of this storm as the low-level jet
increases. 

...Far Northwest TX....Southwest/South-Central OK...
Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible across the region as
cluster of storms currently moving across southwest OK and far
northwest TX continues eastward. More information about this area is
available in MCD 1777.

..Mosier.. 08/18/2019

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