RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Dec 16, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected along the Pacific Coast this
afternoon through late tonight.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough and related frontal band over the eastern Pacific
will spread inland along the west coast late this afternoon through
tonight. As mid-level temperatures cool and lapse rates steepen,
weak buoyancy will allow for the possibility of a few thunderstorms
late this afternoon and tonight, particularly for coastal WA/OR, but
potentially as far south as the central CA coast.

Elsewhere, related to the closed upper low along the
Mid-Atlantic/New England coast, minimal elevated buoyancy and
marginally conducive thermodynamic profiles could yield a couple of
lightning strikes this afternoon/evening off the coast of New
England.

..Guyer.. 12/16/2018

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SPC Dec 16, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Discussion...
A deep upper trough and associated cold front will result in
widespread precipitation from central CA northward to the Pacific
Northwest through tonight. Instability will be very weak, but may be
sufficient for the threat of a few lightning strikes, beginning near
the Pacific Northwest coast and spreading southward with time. 

A few lightning strikes will also be possible off of the New England
coast this afternoon and evening in association with a closed low,
with the primary threat expected to remain offshore.

..Dean.. 12/16/2018

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