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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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795
FXUS63 KIND 251908
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
308 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High pressure will keep the weather dry through the day Friday, then
a cold front could bring a few showers Friday night. Dry weather
will then return until mid-week next week, when an approaching front
could bring more rain. Below normal temperatures will continue
through the weekend, then above normal readings will arrive early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Drier air will continue to work south into central Indiana for the
remainder of the afternoon, scattering out the lower level clouds.
However, high clouds will be increasing from the west from an upper
level system in Kansas.

As the upper system in Kansas dives southeast, high level, and some
mid level, clouds will stream across mainly the southern half of the
forecast area tonight. Will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy
south, and mostly clear to partly cloudy north.

The clouds across the south will keep temperatures up some, but
readings across portions of the northern forecast area will dip into
the mid 30s. The center of the high will remain north of the area,
so winds won`t go calm.

Will have some patchy frost north, but given the potential for
clouds and some wind will not issue a Frost Advisory. Will issue a
Special Weather Statement for patchy frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Thursday through Saturday/
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The upper low moving across the southern states will keep some
clouds across the area Thursday, mainly south.

A cold front will move through on Friday, but moisture will be quite
limited as the system to the south will have taken most of the
moisture with it. Will continue with a dry forecast during the day.

Friday night, an upper level system will move into the Great Lakes
region. The GFS is stronger than the rest of the models and spreads
rain well into central Indiana. Most other models are farther north
and weaker. However, the SREF does bring some rain chances into
northern areas. Thus, confidence is low in PoPs Friday night, and
will make no changes to the intialization`s low PoPs north then.

Colder air moves back in behind the system Saturday. Went a little
cooler than the initialization northeast given latest trends in the
models.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday Night/...

Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A large ridge of high pressure will dominate the extended forecast
through Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions. This is a high
confidence forecast, and no changes were made to the latest
blended initialization. It won`t be until the very end of the
period when rain chances return (Tuesday night) ahead of a cold
front. Meanwhile, a weak warming trend will commence during the
period with high temperatures climbing into the 70s next week. So,
the first shift toward a more summer-like forecast is on the
horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 25/18Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Persistent MVFR ceilings continue to linger at KIND and KHUF, but
once they clear out this afternoon, VFR will become the
prevailing flight category through the end of the TAF period.
Meanwhile, winds will be northerly at 5 to 11 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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