000
FXUS63 KIND 201409
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1009 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

A frontal boundary will continue to sink south today across central
Indiana keeping showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the
next several days as it pushes south, then stalls, and then heads
back north as a warm front later this week and into the weekend.
Temperatures will cool to near normal for much of the forecast
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

With a front sinking south in the forecast area today, will see increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms during the day as
instability increases and another upper wave moves through.
Precipitable water values continue to be high and shear continues
to be low, so the main threats will continue to be heavy rainfall
leading to flooding and frequent lightning. With plenty of
instability by afternoon can`t rule out a stray severe storm, but
doubt any more than that. High res models are not handling the
current convection particularly well, so did not feel confident
enough to go dry at any time today, but do expect coverage to
increase later in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday night/...

Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The cold front will sink to the southern part of the area tonight
and stall out there for much of Thursday and Thursday night, but
then start to move back northward as a warm front on Friday.
Forcing will increase during the period, with a bit of the upper
jet working its way to central Indiana tonight and into Thursday
morning. A low level jet also manages to point toward the area on
Friday before it moves off to the east. These features will serve
to increase shear which could allow for more organization to the
convection. The surface boundary will continue to serve as a
focusing mechanism, and with high precipitable water values
present all storms will have the potential for heavy rainfall that
could lead to flooding problems. Friday night the surface low
will start to move to the east and this should allow precip
chances to fall by Saturday morning.

Temperatures will be near normal through the short term with The
front meandering in the area will cause plenty of cloud cover
along with the precipitation chances, and the upper low moving
toward and then into the area will drop temperatures as the ridge
is pushed south.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Ensembles are in fairly good agreement early in the extended,
however the solutions continue to diverge by early next week,
suggesting a lower confidence forecast by late in the period.

Ensembles agree for the most part in bringing an upper trough across
the area over the weekend. Will keep PoPs in the forecast for
Saturday and Sunday, coinciding with the passage of the upper
trough.

By early next week, ensembles diverge as the how much of the weekend
trough hangs back across the area, and the resultant strength of an
upper ridge that may or may not build into the area. There are also
questions revolving around the next trough which may move into the
central parts of the country early next week. Inherited a mostly dry
forecast for Monday and Tuesday, although the ensembles in general
during that period are rather wet. For now, will keep the forecast
dry early next week, as some of the ensembles are leaning in this
direction, and monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 201500Z TAF update)...

Issued at 1010 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Convective temperatures should be reached by the early afternoon
hours, triggering scattered convection. Brief LIFR visibility
and gusty shifting winds around heavier cells.

Otherwise, low ceilings are expected to scatter out by late morning,
giving way to scattered to broken clouds at 5 thousand feet or
higher.

Surface winds becoming 260-280 degrees at 9-13 kts by midday. A
gradual shift to the north may occur at KLAF late this afternoon
or early this evening as a front drops south.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/JK