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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 152036
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
336 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

A large scale pattern shift will bring above normal temperatures to
central Indiana starting Saturday. In addition, southwest systems
will bring mainly rain chances to the area with the best chances
Sunday and late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Satellite and rh time sections suggest there will be decent cloud
cover tonight, especially near and north of Interstate 74.
Otherwise, surface high pressure over the southern states will allow
for a southwest low level flow. The clouds and southwesterly winds
should keep temperatures from falling too much overnight. Blend lows
in the upper 20s look ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 332 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures and then
timing and coverage of mainly rain on Sunday.

Model rh time sections are showing a dry column Saturday and
Saturday night as the surface high holds across the South.
Increasing sunshine and southwest winds should allow temperatures to
jump to above normal with blend highs in the mid 40s northeast to
lower 50s southwest look good.

After that, models in good agreement that a southwest system will
impinge upon central Indiana Sunday. This system will have plenty of
moisture to work with on Sunday and should allow for scattered to
widespread precipitation. Model soundings and BUFKIT suggest the
rain could start off briefly mixed with snow or sleet. However, good
confidence rain will be the main precip type.

Finally, energy may eject from a southwestern trough and bring small
chances to all or parts of the area overnight Sunday night and
Monday. However, good confidence most areas will see dry weather
with continued warmer than normal temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...

Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

ECMWF keeps mainly high pressure in place from the upper midwest
across Indiana from Monday through Thursday. This will keep a
cool Northeasterly flow in place across the region for much of the
week. Meanwhile...a frontal boundary will be stalled out across
Kentucky and the Tennessee River Valley through Much of next week.
A low pressure system is expected to track along this boundary
from Tuesday Night through Thursday. At this time best moisture
and forcing looks to remains south of Indiana...and will keep the
forecast dry.

Best chance for precip in this period will be Friday as the
stalled boundary is pulled north into Indiana by and approaching
Low pressure system. Forecast builder has inserted mixed
precipitation chances for that time.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 15/21Z IND TAF Update/...
Issued at 336 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Had to add tempo MVFR ceiling through 23z per trends.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1234 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

MVFR ceilings through 21Z, VFR after.

MVFR ceilings will slowly rise through the afternoon and become
VFR by late this evening as a trough exits the region. Winds will
gust at times during the afternoon today and will weaken after
sunset. Through the night winds will shift to become more
southerly.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....Puma
AVIATION...White/MK

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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