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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN
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000 FXUS63 KIND 250436 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1136 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 A cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures for the end of the week, compared to what central Indiana has seen in the past couple days. There are frequent chances for rain from Friday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal for the weekend, otherwise near normal temperatures are expected. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 913 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 Surface observations indicate the majority of the wind gusts have diminished, except for the southwest zones where they will probably linger a couple more hours, given the 3 hourly pressure rise axis is currently moving through that area. Will take out the gusts over the rest of the area on the update. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast still looks good at this time. Previous discussion follows. A weak cold front extending off of a surface low centered over the eastern Great Lakes region, is making its way across central Indiana this afternoon. The day`s high already occurred earlier today for most of the area, and temperatures should remain somewhat steady, or fall slightly through the rest of the afternoon. Overnight, typical diurnal cooling will take over, dropping to near 30 degrees tonight. Scattered showers formed ahead of the front across the SE counties of the CWA. Some light showers remain, but will continue eastward as the front progresses, moving out of the area by this evening. Cooler air will settle in at the surface behind the cold front, while much drier westerly air will persist aloft. Low clouds are expected to form overnight as moisture at the surface gets trapped below an inversion that will form this evening. The inversion should weaken as sunrise approaches, but the clouds will likely stick around through the night. && .SHORT TERM /Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night/... Issued at 346 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 Quiet weather is in store for the short term as subsidence and dry air takes takes precedence at the mid levels. Model soundings show moisture aloft through much of the day tomorrow leading to mid to high clouds. The column will then dry out some tomorrow night which will prompt more scattered cloud coverage to form throughout the night. Expect near normal temperatures for the period, with light variable winds. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Issued at 356 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 Much of Friday will be quiet, but an upper wave and a surface cold front will work together to bring chances for mainly rain to central Indiana late Friday into Saturday morning. The bulk of the deeper moisture looks to remain south of the area, so kept PoPs in chance category or lower. This front will stall out not too far to the south of the area. A large upper trough and another cold front will then move into the area Saturday night into Sunday night. These interacting together will keep chances for rain across the area during the weekend. Again, the better moisture will remain south of the area, south of the original front. Thus, will keep PoPs in chance category or lower, with the highest PoPs in the southern forecast area closer to better moisture. Uncertainty then increases for the remainder of the long term period, as guidance differs on an ejecting upper wave from the southwest USA. For now will just go slight chance PoPs around Monday night into Tuesday morning, with low confidence. Above normal temperatures will return for the weekend with southwest flow aloft, but a return to average readings will occur early next week behind the weekend cold front. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 250600Z TAFS/... Issued at 1135 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 IMPACTS: Areas of ceilings 025-040 possibly developing towards daybreak Thursday, and lingering through the morning hours. Surface winds 340-360 degrees at 4-8 kts overnight will gradually back to 270-310 degrees by midday Thursday. DISCUSSION: Satellite and surface observations indicate most of the lower cloud cover has dissipated across the area. However, a favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan may result in the development of areas of ceilings 025-040 towards daybreak Thursday, with better chances by the mid to late morning hours as the boundary layer heats up. CONFIDENCE: High confidence in visibility and wind forecast through midday Thursday. Low confidence on development of ceilings 025-040. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KH NEAR TERM...JAS SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...JAS |
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NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
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