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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 251904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated below.


Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

A summer like pattern is expected across central Indiana this week
with high pressure across the area during the week. A weak upper
level wave may bring a few showers to the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. There will be small chances for rain later in the week
as upper level waves ride the ridge through the Midwest. Better
chances for rain are expected early next week.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Dry conditions are expected for tonight with very small chances
for showers near the end of the period as a complex of
thunderstorms approach central Indiana. Current thoughts are that
as the complex moves through Illinois it will weaken as it moves
into an area of high pressure. There are small chances for rain
across the northwest to account for the uncertainty on how long
the complex lasts. Dry weather is expected elsewhere with partly
cloudy skies.

Temperatures tonight will not be as cool as previous nights as dew
points continue to increase with lows expected to be in the mid


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Primary focus for the period will be tracking the small chances
for rain through the period. A weak upper level wave will
interact with hot and humid air Wednesday afternoon to bring
isolated showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for
thunderstorms will be across north central Indiana where the best
forcing is expected. A summer like pattern will settle in with hot
and humid conditions Wednesday through Friday with temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s and lower
70s. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the
afternoon on Thursday and Friday as convective temperatures are
reached but will remain isolated with strong subsidence in place.

High temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 80s a few
90s possible. Lows will be in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM (Friday Night Through Tuesday)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Models are close enough that the National Blend of Models
initialization was accepted for most items.

The area will still remain between an upper ridge to the west and an
upper trough to the east for much of the period. This may allow a
back door cold front to get into the area, bringing low PoPs to
parts of the area into the weekend. Confidence remains low though.

A potentially stronger upper wave may bring more forcing to allow
better (but still chance category) PoPs by Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures will rule during the long term.


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 251800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

A few cumulus will dissipate this evening, leaving behind some mid
and high clouds into Wednesday.

Some dying convection may make it into the KLAF area overnight, but
odds are low enough at the moment to not mention it. More scattered
convection is possible Wednesday afternoon.





Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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