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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240352
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1152 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Generally seasonable but dry conditions will persist under
decreasing clouds for the remainder of the work week.  Following a
very warm weekend, a passing cold front Sunday will bring a
transition to very cool weather next week. Slight chances to
chances of precipitation will exist for most of the region from
Saturday night to Tuesday...with the threat of thunderstorms
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of today through Tonight/...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Considerable mid and upper-level cloudiness will prevail through
tonight...courtesy both the remnants of Tropical Storm Beta tracking
into the Tennessee Valley and a weak upper-level disturbance slowly
crossing the region from west to east.  While a stray shower cannot
be ruled out, especially in the far southern counties...seasonably
dry low levels will prevent organized precipitation for central
Indiana.  Light southwesterly winds will become variable after
midnight.  Overnight will be seasonably chilly with temperatures
falling to the low to mid 50`s by dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

The end of the work week will will see a return to the seasonably
sunny and pleasant, but dry, conditions that has dominated the
region`s weather for the last week...although early mornings will
not be as chilly as in previous days.  The first weak mid-level wave
will linger along southern Indiana Thursday, delaying clearing here
as Beta`s remnants slowly slide eastward.  A second mid-level wave
will then cross the Mid-west from west to east late Thursday/early
Friday...but with limited low-level moisture will provide only
scattered clouds with no expected rain.  Light southeasterly winds
will then bring a return to moderate humidity Friday night...and
set the stage for unseasonable warmth Saturday.

Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70`s will persist for most
locations Thursday-Friday, before peaking in the mid to upper 80`s
Saturday.  Overnight lows will moderate from the 50`s Thursday night
to near 60 Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Ensembles and models in good agreement on big changes to the weather
late this weekend through the middle of next week.

A short wave will strengthen over the northern Plains Sunday and
then pivot across the Great Lakes Sunday night. This system will
push a cold front across central Indiana on Sunday. However, prior
to the front, low level thermals support one more day of above
normal temperatures with afternoon highs expected to reach the lower
and middle 80s. Would not rule out showers Saturday night over
northern sections, but there will be a slightly better chance of
showers with the front and trough passage Sunday and Sunday night.
In addition, instability progs with most unstable CAPES 600-1200
J/KG support adding thunder Sunday.

Then, a much stronger upper system will invade the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley starting Monday night. Numerous waves around the upper
low will carve out a deep trough and bring much cooler temperatures
in. Low level thermals support temperatures more than 10 degrees
below normal by next Wednesday. Deeper moisture with this system
along with the synoptic scale lift provided by a cold front and the
deepening trough support shower threat Monday through Tuesday with
the best chances looking like Tuesday. Instability progs do not
support thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 24/06Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1146 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Focus for the TAF period remains on visibility restrictions early
Thursday morning due to fog formation. Decided to carry mention
of fog at all outlying TAF sites now, but confidence remains low
in severity of visibility restrictions. Outside of the Thu 09-12Z
time period of fog, conditions will be at VFR levels. Meanwhile,
winds will generally be light and variable, eventually becoming
southeasterly.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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