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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 161436
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
936 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 149 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Dry weather with above normal temperatures are expected the next
few days as a large high pressure system over the plains states
builds eastward today. The High will reach Indiana by Tuesday
morning keeping dry weather across the area through at least
Tuesday Night. Expect mostly clear nights and partly cloudy days.

The high is expected to exit the area on Wednesday...allowing a
low pressure system to arrive across the area for the end of the
work week. This will bring a return of precipitation chances to
the forecast then.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 933 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Short term models suggest lingering low cloud currently over the
eastern and southern zones will clear out of the rest of the
forecast area early this afternoon.

Will nudge up the highs a bit today based on this morning`s upper
air observations.

Previous discussion follows.

Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure in
place across West Virginia. Cyclonic NE surface flow was in place
across Indiana. Radar showed a few bands of lingering rain
showers...quickly diminishing. GOES16 shows wrap around clouds in
place across Indiana...while clearing was found across Illinois
ahead of some high cirrus over Iowa and Missouri. Aloft water
vapor showed subsidence and drying over Illinois associated with
ridging building aloft. Temperatures across Central Indiana were
in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Time heights and forecast soundings show a dry column developing
across the forecast area today. Strong subsidence is indicated as
ridging builds aloft. Further support of subsidence is depicted as
strong ridging aloft is expected to develop across the Rockies and
high plains...resulting in NW flow and lee side subsidence
spilling into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Forecast soundings
show unreachable convective temperatures...thus only some high
clouds will be expected through the day within the flow aloft.
Time heights show some lingering lower level moisture through
12Z...but any lingering strato-cu should quickly dissipate after
sun-up and the continued departure of the low pressure system to
the east.

Given the expected sunshine today but cooler NW flow...will trend
highs at or below the forecast builder blends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 149 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Quiet and dry weather is expected this period. GFS and NAM both
show ridging over the western plains slowly building eastward
through Tuesday. Surface high pressure is indicated to to lead
ahead of the ridge...passing east of Central Indiana on Tuesday
night. Meanwhile...forecast soundings and time heights show a very
dry column with unreachable convective temperatures. Thus we will
look for mostly clear nights and partly cloudy days through the
period. For now will not steer far from the forecast builder
blends.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Issued at 249 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Models are again depicting a fairly active long term period from
Wednesday night into Friday evening as a wrapped up low pressure
system slowly pushes through the region. Thermal profiles are a
bit warmer and more conducive of all rain until later in the
event, but at this point, even if some snow does mix in on the
back side it does not look particularly significant.

Blended initialization handled things relatively well and required
only minor adjustments.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 161500Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 917 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018

Satellite and surface observations indicate the IFR ceilings
should be scattering out at the KIND terminal over the next hour
or so.

Previous discussion follows.

IFR conditions at IND/BMG and briefly at HUF will give way by mid
morning to VFR, with VFR the predominant condition the rest of the
period.

Some lingering fog and low ceilings at all but LAF continue to be
a problem, and satellite shows some reexpansion to the west in
recent images, but overall trend should still be toward erosion
after sunrise. All sites should be VFR no later than midday and
likely by mid morning.

Winds will be below 10KT through the period and either variable
or westerly through northerly.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma/JAS
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Nield/JAS

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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