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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 110250
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

High pressure is expected across the area into Friday. A low
pressure system may affect the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Dry weather expected tonight as surface high pressure slides through
the Tennessee Valley. Fairly thick high level cloud should thin out
during the evening hours, as a long wave trough shifts off to the
east. In addition, some mid level cloud may move into the northwest
zones towards sunrise Wednesday.

Low level thicknesses generally support the GFS MOS lows tonight, so
any adjustments will be minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Models indicate the upper flow will flatten out temporarily by
Wednesday and Thursday, before amplifying again by Friday as a
trough develops in the Plains.

Dry weather is expected through at least Thursday night, as surface
high pressure slides off to the east.

Confidence in the forecast gets lower by Friday, as differences
develop with respect to potential energy lifting out of the Gulf of
Mexico. Operational models are in general agreement in keeping the
precipitation threat with the system off to the southeast through
Friday, while some of the ensembles indicate a farther northwest
track to the moisture surge. For this reason, will keep PoPs in the
forecast for rain or mixed precipitation on Friday, and continue to
monitor trends.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods of the short term look reasonable at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

There is continued agreement on the northern and southern stream
jets remaining out of phase Friday night and Saturday as a
stronger surface wave passes to the southeast of the region
followed by weaker low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes.
These two system will eventually phase late weekend...but well to
the northeast of the Ohio Valley. At this point...generally
scattered light mixed precipitation is possible Friday and Friday
night as the initial system passes to our southeast with
additional small chances Saturday and Saturday night with the low
tracking to our north. Rain will be the primary precip type...
occasionally mixing with light snow.

The much more interesting prospect for wintry mischief lies
further out in the extended for early next week as a fast moving
system tracks from the southern Plains east-northeast into the
central Appalachians by Tuesday. This is a classic track that has
some potential for a northwest shift over the next few days...
especially considering the potential for jet stream phasing
aloft looks greater which would tend to pull the system further
to the left. Colder air will also be better entrenched over the
region by early next week which would raise the ceiling for snow
and possibly some accumulations if the track draws further north
into the Ohio Valley. At this early stage...low pops are warranted
with a continued eye on the evolution of the pattern and setup in
the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 11/03Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 949 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Update...
No changes.

Previous Discussion...

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period as
high pressure strengthens over the region. Meanwhile, winds will
start out southwesterly, gradually veering to the northwest then
northeast.  Sustained speeds will range between 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...TDUD

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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