000
FXUS63 KIND 250436
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1136 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

A cold front will bring slightly cooler temperatures for
the end of the week, compared to what central Indiana has seen in
the past couple days. There are frequent chances for rain from
Friday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal for
the weekend, otherwise near normal temperatures are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 913 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Surface observations indicate the majority of the wind gusts have
diminished, except for the southwest zones where they will
probably linger a couple more hours, given the 3 hourly pressure
rise axis is currently moving through that area. Will take out the
gusts over the rest of the area on the update.

Otherwise, the rest of the forecast still looks good at this time.
Previous discussion follows.

A weak cold front extending off of a surface low centered over
the eastern Great Lakes region, is making its way across central
Indiana this afternoon. The day`s high already occurred earlier
today for most of the area, and temperatures should remain
somewhat steady, or fall slightly through the rest of the
afternoon. Overnight, typical diurnal cooling will take over,
dropping to near 30 degrees tonight.

Scattered showers formed ahead of the front across the SE counties
of the CWA. Some light showers remain, but will continue eastward as
the front progresses, moving out of the area by this evening.

Cooler air will settle in at the surface behind the cold front,
while much drier westerly air will persist aloft. Low clouds are
expected to form overnight as moisture at the surface gets trapped
below an inversion that will form this evening. The inversion should
weaken as sunrise approaches, but the clouds will likely stick
around through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night/...

Issued at 346 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Quiet weather is in store for the short term as subsidence and
dry air takes takes precedence at the mid levels. Model soundings
show moisture aloft through much of the day tomorrow leading to
mid to high clouds. The column will then dry out some tomorrow
night which will prompt more scattered cloud coverage to form
throughout the night. Expect near normal temperatures for the
period, with light variable winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 356 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Much of Friday will be quiet, but an upper wave and a surface cold
front will work together to bring chances for mainly rain to central
Indiana late Friday into Saturday morning. The bulk of the deeper
moisture looks to remain south of the area, so kept PoPs in chance
category or lower.

This front will stall out not too far to the south of the area. A
large upper trough and another cold front will then move into the
area Saturday night into Sunday night.

These interacting together will keep chances for rain across the
area during the weekend. Again, the better moisture will remain
south of the area, south of the original front. Thus, will keep PoPs
in chance category or lower, with the highest PoPs in the southern
forecast area closer to better moisture.

Uncertainty then increases for the remainder of the long term
period, as guidance differs on an ejecting upper wave from the
southwest USA. For now will just go slight chance PoPs around Monday
night into Tuesday morning, with low confidence.

Above normal temperatures will return for the weekend with southwest
flow aloft, but a return to average readings will occur early next
week behind the weekend cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 250600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1135 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

IMPACTS: Areas of ceilings 025-040 possibly developing towards daybreak
Thursday, and lingering through the morning hours. Surface winds 340-360
degrees at 4-8 kts overnight will gradually back to 270-310 degrees
by midday Thursday.

DISCUSSION: Satellite and surface observations indicate most of the
lower cloud cover has dissipated across the area. However, a favorable
fetch off of Lake Michigan may result in the development of areas of
ceilings 025-040 towards daybreak Thursday, with better chances by
the mid to late morning hours as the boundary layer heats up.

CONFIDENCE: High confidence in visibility and wind forecast through
midday Thursday. Low confidence on development of ceilings 025-040.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KH
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JAS