Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products

(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)

Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List

County Warning Area MAP
Select Forecast Office:   Select Product:  
000
FXUS63 KIND 190518
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
118 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sub-freezing temperatures through 10AM today
- Wind gusts to around 35-40mph this afternoon
- Elevated fire weather risk today
- Lows in the low 20s Wednesday night

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Today.

Gusty winds and an elevated fire weather risk is expected for today
with a combination of wind gusts to 35 mph and minimum RH values
around 30 percent.  The near northerly upper level flow has begun to
shift more northwesterly with strengthening surface and low level
pressure gradients as a 994mb low over Southern Canada continues to
slowly strengthen and sink southward combined with a broad area of
high pressure across the Southern Gulf states. This will lead to a
45-55kt 850mb jet along and just ahead of a weak cold front with
model soundings showing lapse rates around 9C/km to the top of the
boundary layer which should allow for efficient mixing down of those
stronger winds.

The key for the day will be how deep the boundary layer mixes with
models varying from around 4kt to 6kft in the more aggressively
mixing models like the GFS and HRRR. The pattern favors deeper
mixing and based on recent events with similar conditions, leaning
more towards the HRRR solution which will bring occasional wind
gusts to around 35kts and frequent gusts in excess of 30kts. One
factor which will help keep winds from pushing towards 40kts is the
timing of the LLJ which looks to peak around 16Z to 18Z while the
highest mixing timeframe will be closer to 20Z as the LLJ begins to
gradually ramp down and exit the forecast area.  Will have to watch
the 18Z to 20Z timeframe as being the timeframe where wind gusts
could overachieve.

As mentioned above, efficient mixing will also help to dry the
surface air out which combined with highs today in the mid to upper
50s will lead to RH values around 30 percent. The southwesterly
surface flow will be advecting in higher dewpoints during the
daytime hours today which will allow for a climb from the mid teens
that are ongoing to around 30 by late afternoon, but with the
temperatures rising much faster than the dewpoints and some of the
moisture mixing out, expect elevated fire weather danger today with
the combination of very strong winds.  Recent rains will help limit
the overall threat but if the dewpoint rise is not quite as robust
as expected, the danger would be greater and similar to conditions
experienced last week with numerous small fires across central
Indiana.

Tonight.

In the aftermath of the frontal passage, quiet weather is expected
for the overnight hours tonight with westerly to northwesterly winds
around 10-15kts and occasional gusts to 20kts. Skies will remain
clear with any lake enhanced cloud cover expected to be limited to
the far northeastern portions of the state into Ohio. These higher
winds will help to limit the radiational cooling with lows in the
low to mid 30s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Wednesday and Thursday.

Quiet weather is expected for Wednesday with mostly clear skies
which will help to then bring another hard freeze Wednesday night
with efficient radiational cooling as winds drop to near calm to go
with the mostly clear skies. The forecast continues to trend cooler
with expected lows now in the low to mid 20s. The pattern then
begins to shift going into Friday as the flow becomes more zonal
ahead of a rain producing system Friday into the weekend.

Friday and Saturday.

Forecast confidence begins to lessen going into Friday with models
beginning to diverge after coalescing on similar solutions in
previous runs. The polar jet and associated shortwave trough
continues to be the dominant feature with this system as it pushes
into the Great Lakes region late Thursday night into Friday bringing
precipitation to the area late Friday into Friday night as the
associated surface cold front pushes southward.  The new wrinkle in
the forecast is the potential that a secondary low ejects to the
northeast ahead of the main low pressure system associated with the
subtropical jet. This feature if it plays out could bring enhanced
precipitation to the southeastern counties Friday into Friday night.

Confidence is this second solution is much lower, especially with it
being a one-off model run but will continue to monitor trends in the
coming days,  With either solution, below normal temperatures are
expected going into the weekend. Snow may mix in, but think that
temperatures across central Indiana will remain warm enough to keep
precipitation all rain but towards the far northern portions of the
state.  Precipitation may linger into Saturday as the flow becomes
northwesterly again, but with the majority of the forcing already
exited, QPF would be light.

Sunday and Monday.

A more impactful system then looks probable going into early next
week as a seasonably strong low exits the Four Corners Region and
tracks to the northeast with widespread precipitation stretching
from the Gulf of Mexico into Canada. At this time heavy rain and
thunderstorms looks to be the most likely threat but will continue
to monitor trends for any potential for strong to severe storms as
well.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Impacts:
-Southwesterly wind gusts to 35kts this afternoon.

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with clear to mostly
clear skies. Southwesterly winds are expected to begin gusting by mid
morning with peak wind gusts to 35kts this afternoon. These stronger
winds will begin to relax after 00Z with winds between 8 and 12 kts
through the overnight hours going into Wednesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

San Juan, PRHonolulu, HI Lake Charles, LA Pueblo, CO Corpus Christi, TX St. Louis, MO Reno, NV Raleigh, NC  Newport/Morehead City, NC Dodge City, KS Houston/Galveston, TX San Joaquin Valley/Hanford, CA Louisville, KY Fort Worth, TX Pittsburgh, PA Austin/San Antonio, TX Sacramento, CA Jackson, MS Phoenix, AZ Northern Indiana, IN Flagstaff, AZ Tallahassee, FL Springfield, MO Riverton, WY Blacksburg, VA Sioux Falls, SD El Paso Area, NM Columbia, SC Wilmington, NC Greenville-Spartanburg, SC Eureka, CA Midland/Odessa, TX Tucson, AZ Goodland, KS Huntsville, AL Amarillo, TX Norman, OK Lubbock, TX Marquette, MI Little Rock, AR Pendleton, OR Missoula, MT Binghamton, NY Boston, MA Green Bay, WI Billings, MT Baltimore/Washington San Diego, CA Tampa Bay, FL Morristown, TN Twin Cities, MN Brownsville, TX Portland, OR Des Moines, IA Memphis, TN Pocatello, ID San Angelo, TX Jacksonville, FL Aberdeen, SD Quad Cities, IA/IL Charleston, SC New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA Peachtree City, GA Shreveport, LA Grand Rapids, MI Medford, OR Albany, NY Wichita, KS Gray/Portland, ME Spokane, WA Boise, ID Denver/Boulder, CO Great Falls, MT Caribou, ME Key West, FL Miami-South Florida, FL New York City/Upton, NY Melbourne, FL Hastings, NE Paducah, KY Glasgow, MT Bismarck, ND Charleston WV Omaha/Valley, NE Buffalo, NY Jackson, KY Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO Gaylord, MI Cheyenne, WY Grand Forks, ND Detroit/Pontiac, MI Central Illinois, IL Burlington, VT Salt Lake City, UT Topeka, KS Nashville, TN Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI Albuquerque, NM Las Vegas, NV Wakefield, VA La Crosse, WI Birmingham, AL Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA Chicago, IL Seattle, WA Rapid City, SD Indianapolis, IN Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA Mobile/Pensacola State College, PA Cleveland, OH Elko, NV Wilmington, OH Grand Junction, CO North Platte, NE Tulsa, OK San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA Duluth, MN Anchorage, AK Fairbanks, AK Juneau, AK Tiyan, GU

Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.