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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211726
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
126 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Fog will burn off this morning leaving behind dry and warmer
weather, which will persist through the day Monday. A couple of
fronts will bring rain chances to the area Monday night through
Thursday night, then dry weather will return. Temperatures will
remain near normal to above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 941 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure in place
across the Tennessee River Valley...extending a ridge north across
IN/OH. GOES16 differential fog product continues to show dense
fog across much of the eastern parts of the forecast area...and we
decided to continue the ongoing dense fog advisory. However signs
of warmer were seen within the fog area...and dissipation and
decay is expected through the rest of the morning hours.

Time height sections and forecast soundings then show a dry column
with subsidence across the forecast area this afternoon.
Meanwhile aloft the NAM shows strong ridging building aloft across
Indiana. Thus will trend toward a mostly sunny afternoon. With
full sun expected this afternoon...trended highs warmer than the
forecast builder blends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Quiet weather will continue through the day Monday. There will be
some weak upper energy along with continued warm advection, but feel
that forcing and moisture will be low enough to keep the forecast
dry.

Monday night into Tuesday a stronger upper wave to the north will
push a cold front into the area, but it will leave the front behind
across the southern forecast area Tuesday night. There should be
enough forcing with these features for some chance PoPs at some
point during that period.

Temperatures will be above normal for most of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Ensembles indicate a fairly zonal flow can be expected during this
period, with a tendency for upper ridging to develop by next
weekend.

The ensembles suggest a weak short wave trough may traverse the
local area around Thursday, but it appears the more energetic
part of the trough will pass well to the south. Will go with
chance PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday, coinciding with the
passage of the trough. Will go dry after Thursday as heights rise.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 211800Z Tafs/...

Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

VFR Conditions are expected this Taf Period.

High pressure and ridging aloft are expected to bring clear skies
and dry weather to Central Indiana over the next 24 hours. Time
heights and forecast sounds reveal a dry column with
subsidence. Thus have trended toward only some high clouds passing
within the flow aloft.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...TDUD

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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