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Forecast Discussion for Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251948
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
248 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Low pressure in place across the Great Lakes will move east to
Quebec tonight. This will result in lingering snow showers and
drizzle to exit the region this evening.

High pressure over Louisiana extending northward to the Central
Plains will build across the Ohio valley on Sunday...and slowly
build across the region through Tuesday. This will result in dry
and cold weather for the start of the work week.

More precipitation chances return late in the work week.
Expect temperatures will be near normal to above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 131 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows deep low pressure over
the Great Lakes with cyclonic surface flow in place across
Indiana. A ridge of high pressure was in place to the
west...stretching from Louisiana to the northern plains. GOES16
shows extensive cloud cover across Indiana...as well as upstream
ahead of the ridge axis over western Minnesota and Western Iowa.
Radar Mosaics show an area of snow showers pivoting around the
low across northern Central Indiana. Along the I70 corridor,
precipitation was falling mainly in the form of drizzle.

Models remain in pretty good agreement for this period. The upper
low is expected to move farther northeast exiting the area. This
should result in a gradual end to the snow showers/drizzle across
the area...slowly exiting to the northeast. Time heights and
forecast soundings continue to show plentiful lower and middle
level saturation...indicating cloud cover being persistent. Given
the amount of cloud upstream and the fact that the models suggest
the clearing ridge axis fails to arrive...remaining well west of
Indiana overnight...will trend toward a cloudy forecast tonight.
Given the lingering precip...may keep some low chc
pops...particularly northeast for the first few hours as the
system departs. Given the expected clouds...will keep lows close
to the NBM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...

Issued at 131 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Upper flow in place remains northwesterly with several weak short
waves poised to push through the flow across Indiana. These short
wave remain unorganized. Looking near the surface High pressure
remains in place across the deep south...effectively blocking the
arrival of any gulf moisture into the Ohio Valley. The surface
high looks to slowly moves east by Sunday afternoon...before
another surface high drops into the region from the northern
plains for Monday and Tuesday. All this time time heights and
forecast soundings continue to indicate saturation within the
lower levels...with trapped strato-cu in place. Deep moisture
never becomes available through Tuesday and forcing remains
limited at best. Thus will stick with a mostly cloudy type
forecast through Tuesday with temperatures close to the NBM.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...

Issued at 247 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

The long term upper pattern looks like mostly upper ridging for most
of the work week, with potential for a large upper trough to
approach to end the week and begin the weekend. However, the devil
is in the details with the upper ridging early, as some ensemble
members show an upper disturbance sliding through the Great Lakes
into the Ohio valley sometime between Tuesday night and Thursday,
and these waves all vary in strength. Thus the result from the NBM
is slight chance PoPs for much of the area late Tuesday night
through Wednesday, and with low confidence from high variability
will leave this alone until subsequent runs come into better
agreement.

A larger more defined system will approach the area to end the
week/start the weekend. Again timing is variable enough for only
slight to low chance PoPs, but this stronger system brings higher
than normal confidence for some precipitation a week from now,
with low confidence on timing and type. Temperatures should start
out in the mid to upper 30s for highs with upper 20s to low 30s
for lows and should slowly warm through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 251800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1143 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Poor flying conditions expected with mainly IFR ceilings through
the period. Snow bands will continue to move southeast over
central Indiana while the system as a whole that is causing them
moves slowly northeast. Tempo 1SM visibilities in the snow bands
can be expected for the next few hours. Could see some rain mix
with the snow as well over the next few hours. KHUF has seen snow
come to an end for the most part, and KBMG should come to an end
over the next hour or two. Could see a few hours more at KIND and
KLAF. Winds will be out of around 250 at 10 to 15 kts with a few
gusts to 22 kts through the afternoon. There is some potential for
patchy drizzle this evening, but not enough to include right now.
Ceilings could see some improvement by late Sunday morning.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Indianapolis, IN (IND) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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