063
FXUS63 KIND 152317
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
717 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

A cold front will pass through the area tonight. In the wake of this
front, high pressure will build into the area for the latter parts
of the week. Another frontal system may affect the area by early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Cold front currently moving through western Illinois at this time.
Short term model data suggest this front will be approaching the
western border zones by 160000Z, and should pass through the local
area tonight. May see some activity develop over the western zones
towards evening, but the better chances should hold off until after
sunset, as the front interacts with deeper moisture advecting in
from the southwest, and steep mid level lapse rates. Most places
should see a period of showers/scattered thunderstorms tonight as
the frontal zone passes. It appears lift will cut off shortly after
frontal passage, so not expecting much in the way of post frontal
precipitation. Model data suggest the front should be east of the
area by sunrise, so precipitation threat should be over by then

Cold advection behind the front looks rather strong, given the low
level thicknesses progged by the models by morning, so will shave a
category off of the GFs MOS lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Dry weather expected during this period in the wake of tonight`s
system as surface high pressure drifts across the area by Thursday
night and Friday. It does appear there will probably be quite a bit
of cold advection cloud cover on Wednesday, which may linger into
Wednesday night before clearing out.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS temperature
guidance in the later periods looks reasonable, so only minor
adjustments planned. Potential for frost exists, especially Thursday
night, with the center of surface ridge overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Monday Night/...

Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Dry conditions will prevail early in the period. However, the
forecast will become much more active starting Saturday when the
first of two frontal systems enters central Indiana. After a short
lull on Sunday morning, a second more potent system will approach
the Midwest from the Central Plains. Any storms that form with
this sytem on Monday could have the potential to become strong to
severe at times. Meanwhile, strong warm advection ahead of the
systems will keep temperatures above normal through the period
before falling on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/00Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 717 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Light showers expected through 06z-08z along and ahead of a cold
front. Trends and GFS LAMP and SREF all suggest some MVFR conditions
in stratocu at least through 03z and possibly again after 12z.

Winds will be southwest less than 10 knots ahead of the front and
northwest to around 15 knots or so in the wake of the front. Gusts
to near 25 knots possible after 14z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK